The arithmetic of smallholder farming in sub-Saharan Africa has long been punishing. A farmer with 1.5 hectares of maize near Nakuru knows exactly what certified seed and balanced fertiliser would do for her yields. What she has not had is KES 12,000 in cash at planting time — and what the formal banking system has not had is any mechanism to lend it to her profitably.

Lipa Sasa uses satellite imagery of enrolled plots, three years of mobile money transaction history, and real-time weather data to generate credit scores for farmers who have never held a bank account. Loans are disbursed as input vouchers redeemable at accredited agro-dealers rather than cash, eliminating diversion risk.

The yield impact, measured across 340,000 enrolled farmers, is 38 percent above the control group average. Default rates sit at 4.2 percent — well below the 11 percent rate that caused the previous generation of agricultural microfinance institutions to exit the sector.

"The risk was never the farmer," said Lipa Sasa CEO Amina Waweru. "The risk was our inability to see her. Once we could see her, the credit decision became straightforward."